Decisions, decisions - please push me one way or another

eoren1

So I just finished reading this article at Luminous Landscapes about the D800 URL="http://www.luminous-landscape.com/reviews/cameras/nikon_d800__e_initial_impressions.shtml"]link[/URL - I don't know why I clicked on it and read the whole thing but I did. Now, I have absolutely no interest in purchasing the D800 and am firmly committed to buying the 5D mk III but (and this is a big but), I can't help but think that with the growing chorus of glowing reviews for the D800 and the relatively lukewarm ones (in press) for the 5D mk III, Canon will have to respond and likely can only do so with a price drop.

My problem is trying to get my rational and irrational mind to agree on what to do. Going into this thing, I just wanted to make sure a full frame 5D replacement was announced before my 50D died due to shutter going past its rated life. I never really had a problem with the image quality and have printed 20x30 without a problem. I didn't take pix of the kids inside in the Winter very much or other dark situations due to the ISO.

Since shooting (briefly) with a friend's 5D ii, I now get that I would have cleaner, more useable files and be able to shoot in darker conditions. I already sold the best lens I had in anticipation of the jump. I want to get the next 5D that comes in stock and have it in my hands before my daughter's ballet recital (tomorrow in a dark theater - too late for that), before the carnival comes back in early May (I want to shoot at dusk and capture stills of the spinning wheel) and fireworks on the 4th.

That being said, the rational part of me keeps telling me to just shoot the 50D with the gear I have (though maybe get a new 85mm/1.8 lens to itch the need to get something and that will be great now and on the next camera). If I wait, I could see a $500 price drop - though knowing Canon, it'll be $200 at best and not til the end of Summer...

So...decisions, decisions.

I know I'll be happy with the 5D iii and it'll open up new photo opportunities immediately. If I buy now, I may end up leaving $200-800 'on the table'. Then again, I may get shots before any discounts come that will be worth the 'loss' in and of themselves.

What to do? Someone please push me toward a decision as I am driving myself crazy over here :scratch

kdog

Get it now and don't look back. Sure, you could wait six months to maybe save $500, but what is the value of the memories that you will catch between now and then? Worst case, look at is as a cheap rental. If you rented a 5DMKIII for six months, it would cost a heck of a lot more than that. Besides, that's pure speculation that the price will drop. Maybe the D800 will go up.

jmphotocraft

I'd be shocked if they dropped the price by $500. If they drop it at all, it will most likely be like you said - $200 and not until the end of the summer. Just get it already and be happy.

eoren1

Thank you gentleman...wallet is officially out and ready. Now just need to find one in stock.

And Jack, I'm following your thought process from the other thread and getting the 85/1.8 with the double rebate

Dan7312

It sounds like the only issue you have with the 5D3 is that could end up purchasing it for $3500 and a couple of months from now it's price might drop to $3300.

If you feel the 5D3 would allow you to make more money from your images than your current camera it's a simple numerical calculation to see net where you would be in a year if you wait 2 months or so to make your purchase assuming the price of the 5D3 drops.

If it's not a monetary decision and you feel the 5D3 would let you get images you can't now, and those images are your goal I'm not sure why you would wait. Even on a monetary basis you could probably justify the early purchase based on the cost of a lost opportunity. It's less than a 10% difference here.

Lastly it may just be the subconsciously you feel the 5D3 isn't really the camera you want... that's often what indecision means, than maybe you really should wait.

BTW, to add to the confusion, who knows Canon might come out with an FF below the 5D3 that satisfies your needs for $2000

But it's all electronics... if you wait it will either be cheap or new stuff will be better.

eoren1 wrote: »

That being said, the rational part of me keeps telling me to just shoot the 50D with the gear I have (though maybe get a new 85mm/1.8 lens to itch the need to get something and that will be great now and on the next camera). If I wait, I could see a $500 price drop - though knowing Canon, it'll be $200 at best and not til the end of Summer...
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jmphotocraft

eoren1 wrote: »

Thank you gentleman...wallet is officially out and ready. Now just need to find one in stock.

And Jack, I'm following your thought process from the other thread and getting the 85/1.8 with the double rebate

What double rebate? I may need to leverage this.

Another more frank way to think about the 5D3 price is... if $200 or even $500 over 6-9 months is going to hurt, you probably shouldn't be buying a $3500 camera. Ya know?

eoren1

Thanks for the thorough assessment Dan
- I doubt that I would actually sell any more landscape shots with the 5D iii than my current 50D. I'm still struggling to figure out how/when/where/why people actually buy my prints of our town (and how to get them to do that more often).

-Ultimately it really isn't a monetary decision in regards to purchasing the camera (I know that sounds either really ironic or just plain dumb when I'm agonizing over a possible future price cut). I shoot for fun, not profit, and I know the camera will allow me more of the former.

-Yes, that darn subconscious is tugging at me here (it tends to do so late at night and with large financial decisions). I don't think it's because it is the wrong decision or that I don't want the camera. I really think it's just my m.o. to second guess myself just when I'm finally ready to purchase something. If my wife were awake she would ask me if I really wanted it and if it would make me happy, think about it for all of 2 seconds and say, 'you should buy it then'.

-And yah I saw the canon rumor thoughts on a future full frame but don't want a possible 45 MP or an 18 MP with 1 focus point

Decision is made - too bad I can't mark the thread as 'resolved' or something else but, if this thought process helps anyone else out, I guess that ends up being a good thing too.

Thanks again!

eoren1

jmphotocraft wrote: »

What double rebate? I may need to leverage this.

Another more frank way to think about the 5D3 price is... if $200 or even $500 over 6-9 months is going to hurt, you probably shouldn't be buying a $3500 camera. Ya know?

Double rebate starts April 29 - URL="http://www.canonrumors.com/2012/04/new-rebates-starting-april-29-until-june-2/"]link[/URL

And the really dumb part is that the camera is essentially paid for by Uncle Sam already (he owes me about $8k in back taxes for something that happened 8 years ago ) So I really shouldn't be agonizing over this but, like I said to Dan, I think this is just my m.o. when faced with a big purchase.

divamum

Worst-case scenario: you hate it, and/or an "entry level" FF camera is released in coming months that you think you'd rather have so there's extra $ for something else. You sell the 5d3 for close what you paid for it (since it's still scarce and in demand it will likely hold its value very well), consider the difference your rental fee for the time you've had it, and simply enjoy using it. Sounds to me like this one is "win-win" no matter what happens!

Harryb

http://us2.campaign-archive2.com/?u=6da918b6573941fb2b50cf033&id=40e5cba83b&e=9e4e2ced73

Dan7312

Beach Camera's eBay store claims to have 5d3's in stock though their regular store does not. Don't know anything about Beach but it's interesting to see that maybe stock is begining to appear

http://www.ebay.com/itm/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&item=290704028733+#ht_8234wt_1139

eoren1 wrote: »

Thank you gentleman...wallet is officially out and ready. Now just need to find one in stock.

And Jack, I'm following your thought process from the other thread and getting the 85/1.8 with the double rebate

eoren1

Thanks Dan. Saw that one but waiting on kit. Have a good feeling about Monday though

Dan7312

Just curious, have you calculated body+lens with double rebate?

eoren1 wrote: »

Thanks Dan. Saw that one but waiting on kit. Have a good feeling about Monday though

eoren1

Just did at BH. Planning on kit and 85. 85 drops to $359. Not bad.

eoren1

By the way, Beach is reputable but I'm a bit nervous buying off eBay and not being able to confirm this is 'new' stock.

timk519

If you're shooting with a 50D now, and want to get a higher ISO rating, what about the 7D? It's still a crop sensor, costs considerably less, and will get you good low-light performance.

Dan7312

Looks like J&R has the 5d3 kit in stock. Earlier today it's status was "on order".

http://www.jr.com/canon/pe/CAN_EOS5DMKIIKT/

Quincy T

timk519 wrote: »

If you're shooting with a 50D now, and want to get a higher ISO rating, what about the 7D? It's still a crop sensor, costs considerably less, and will get you good low-light performance.

As a 7D owner, sure, this is true, but if he wants 5D3 quality in high ISO than he is going to be sorely disappointed. The 7D is an incredible device, but it's still limited by its sensor.

Anyway. Eoren, since you're not making any money with your images, just stop and consider moving to full frame in a much less expensive way. Or maybe find a place to rent a 1D/5D for a weekend. I wouldn't just jump on a $3,500 camera...more than many folks can spend on their car these days...for the sake of "it will be much better for my hobby"

If you have the means, by all means , get it. I just think it's important to play devil's advocate when it comes to purchasing camera equipment. Everyone always wants better gear. It's addicting in the moment. Lenses are investments, bodies are not. They are upgrades that really have to be strongly considered and researched and decided upon.

jmphotocraft

Quincy T wrote: »

Lenses are investments, bodies are not. They are upgrades that really have to be strongly considered and researched and decided upon.

Sage advice, but the 5D3 actually is an investment. I will be keeping mine until it dies. I have thankfully exited the upgrade race.

AF and IS lenses die too you know.

eoren1

Dan: that's the mark II actually. Saw the price and almost jumped on it. Mark III still on order there

As for suggestions about going crop or the comparison to the d800, neither is a consideration for me. I know what APSc is capable of and am ready to move to full frame after trying out the 5D mk II. I do have the means but would just hate to buy the camera and be slapped with a missed chance at a price cut in a few months.

If anyone has leads on where to get a 5D mk III, I'm all ears. Been hunting at bh, adorama, tallyns, normans, jr, etc without luck...

Dan7312

Yup, I missed that... but in binary 11 is 3

In any case Adorama now says the kit is on the way to their warehouse and should be there in a few days...

http://www.adorama.com/ICA5DM3K.html

Please check my Roman numerals on this one too:D

eoren1 wrote: »

Dan: that's the mark II actually. Saw the price and almost jumped on it. Mark III still on order there

As for suggestions about going crop or the comparison to the d800, neither is a consideration for me. I know what APSc is capable of and am ready to move to full frame after trying out the 5D mk II. I do have the means but would just hate to buy the camera and be slapped with a missed chance at a price cut in a few months.

If anyone has leads on where to get a 5D mk III, I'm all ears. Been hunting at bh, adorama, tallyns, normans, jr, etc without luck...

eoren1

Saw that and called them but they were a bit surly on the phone and couldn't tell me what that meant. Think I'll refresh every hour and see if message changes.

Dan7312

Canonrumors has a rumor that says they my be arriving Wed.

http://www.canonrumors.com/2012/04/canon-eos-5d-mark-iii-landing-this-week/

eoren1 wrote: »

Saw that and called them but they were a bit surly on the phone and couldn't tell me what that meant. Think I'll refresh every hour and see if message changes.

eoren1

Yup...but they don't say where :bash
Found his comment in the BH forum so guessing it might be there. That being said, sounds like BH has a waiting a mile long dating back to early preorders.
I called Tallyn's and put my name down on their list earlier today.
Here's hoping...

Dan7312

I'm guessing a lot of people are on multiple lists. The retailers conundrum, order enough to fulfill the backlog... and as soon as the manufacturer starts shipping product their backlog list evaporates before they can fill boxes and put them on the shipping dock.

I'm on on local dealers list too, but I'm not all that hopeful I'll get one from them.

Good luck, can't wait to see people saying "Mine's arriving tomorrow!"

eoren1 wrote: »

Yup...but they don't say where :bash
Found his comment in the BH forum so guessing it might be there. That being said, sounds like BH has a waiting a mile long dating back to early preorders.
I called Tallyn's and put my name down on their list earlier today.
Here's hoping...

Quincy T

jmphotocraft wrote: »

Sage advice, but the 5D3 actually is an investment. I will be keeping mine until it dies. I have thankfully exited the upgrade race.

AF and IS lenses die too you know.

From what I'm hearing, I'll have to agree for the moment. We'll see.

RovingEyePhoto

divamum wrote: »

Worst-case scenario: you hate it, and/or an "entry level" FF camera is released in coming months that you think you'd rather have so there's extra $ for something else. You sell the 5d3 for close what you paid for it (since it's still scarce and in demand it will likely hold its value very well), consider the difference your rental fee for the time you've had it, and simply enjoy using it. Sounds to me like this one is "win-win" no matter what happens!

Good thinking! Sometimes just have to bite the logic bullet.

RovingEyePhoto

eoren1 wrote: »

Dan: that's the mark II actually. Saw the price and almost jumped on it. Mark III still on order there

As for suggestions about going crop or the comparison to the d800, neither is a consideration for me. I know what APSc is capable of and am ready to move to full frame after trying out the 5D mk II. I do have the means but would just hate to buy the camera and be slapped with a missed chance at a price cut in a few months.

If anyone has leads on where to get a 5D mk III, I'm all ears. Been hunting at bh, adorama, tallyns, normans, jr, etc without luck...

One possibility is buying in tandem, two purchasers getting together for two kits. I'm considering the Mk III also, see my post on "moving up", have the capability, but always nice to save a few bucks. Maybe we can find a few others also planning a Mk III, can put together a real buying consortium. the one thing we'd have to be is patient, wait till after the initial fervor has died and back orders filled. I've got that kind of time. Have you? Have others?

eoren1

Patience??? Let's see, I'm refreshing the BH, Adorama, JR, and Normans entries for the 5D mk III kit every hour (or more), calling Tallyn's every day to check if any stock came in, hunting forums at DPreview and canonrumors for any hints of stock anywhere... yah, I've got patience

RovingEyePhoto

eoren1 wrote: »

Patience??? Let's see, I'm refreshing the BH, Adorama, JR, and Normans entries for the 5D mk III kit every hour (or more), calling Tallyn's every day to check if any stock came in, hunting forums at DPreview and canonrumors for any hints of stock anywhere... yah, I've got patience

Ha ha, very good! I wonder if buyers here have grouped to form a buying consortium for particular cameras/kits in the past. Not a bad idea, once initial fervor cools, could be room for negotiation. I understand, though, that retail mark-up is pretty slim for these units, so maybe limited. Whenever trades of former equip are involved, however, makes for talking room ...

Dan7312

Just got the word that my local camera shop will have my 5D3 body in tomorrow or Friday.

eoren1 wrote: »

Patience??? Let's see, I'm refreshing the BH, Adorama, JR, and Normans entries for the 5D mk III kit every hour (or more), calling Tallyn's every day to check if any stock came in, hunting forums at DPreview and canonrumors for any hints of stock anywhere... yah, I've got patience