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Nikon D800 36mp $4,000 rumor

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    ThatCanonGuyThatCanonGuy Registered Users Posts: 1,778 Major grins
    edited October 5, 2011
    Yes, I mean that the sensor belongs in an X body; yes this is a new market, I think it's the direct competitor to Canon's high-MP 5DII replacement. The rumor says that 36mp AND the name "D800" are 99% probability. The rest of the specs are pretty accurate he thinks, but it's the mp's and name that are 99%. So if this is called D800, then the other would have to be called h or s. It can't be called D700s, unless they release it before everything else... which brings up another point, when does the new generation begin? With this 36mp D800? With the D4? Probably whatever even-numbered model is released first, which means it could be the D800.

    I expect Canon to counter with a D700-type camera as well, or perhaps combine them into one. There has been a lot of talk about the 1D and 1Ds series merging, and the 5D series splitting... maybe Nikon is doing that? The D3s and D3x get combined, and we see a D800 and D800h/s?
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    thegridrunnerthegridrunner Registered Users Posts: 235 Major grins
    edited October 5, 2011
    I really wonder how good the pictures are going to look compared to the original D700 or even the D3x and D3s. I would imagine the sensor will probably be the best sensor on the market. Now I am just waiting until I can get my hands on it.
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    jpcjpc Registered Users Posts: 840 Major grins
    edited October 5, 2011
    You know what, you're absolutely right! I've been focusing on what this means for the D700 replacement and completely overlooking the fact that the pics will almost certainly be mind-blowing. This, after all, a medium-format Nikon. It probably won't suck!
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    MGRPhotoMGRPhoto Registered Users Posts: 55 Big grins
    edited October 5, 2011
    jpc wrote: »
    You know what, you're absolutely right! I've been focusing on what this means for the D700 replacement and completely overlooking the fact that the pics will almost certainly be mind-blowing. This, after all, a medium-format Nikon. It probably won't suck!

    It's not medium format. The sensor is still FX format which means it will still be in the 35mm range. Give or take a mm.
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    thegridrunnerthegridrunner Registered Users Posts: 235 Major grins
    edited October 5, 2011
    I remember seeing a photo from a friend of mine who had a Nikon D3x. I was blown away by the detail and realism of the picture compared to my D80. With this thought in mind, I would love to compare this sensor with the Nikon D3x. I would imagine seeing a similar type of advancement in terms of clarity and realism. Even my sucky pictures will look great with this camera. rolleyes1.gif
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    jpcjpc Registered Users Posts: 840 Major grins
    edited October 5, 2011
    MGRPhoto wrote: »
    It's not medium format. The sensor is still FX format which means it will still be in the 35mm range. Give or take a mm.

    You are technically correct, sir. MF sensors have about 2x the surface area. It's just a figure of speech.
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    Matthew SavilleMatthew Saville Registered Users, Retired Mod Posts: 3,352 Major grins
    edited October 5, 2011
    Yes, I mean that the sensor belongs in an X body; yes this is a new market, I think it's the direct competitor to Canon's high-MP 5DII replacement. The rumor says that 36mp AND the name "D800" are 99% probability. The rest of the specs are pretty accurate he thinks, but it's the mp's and name that are 99%. So if this is called D800, then the other would have to be called h or s. It can't be called D700s, unless they release it before everything else... which brings up another point, when does the new generation begin? With this 36mp D800? With the D4? Probably whatever even-numbered model is released first, which means it could be the D800.

    I expect Canon to counter with a D700-type camera as well, or perhaps combine them into one. There has been a lot of talk about the 1D and 1Ds series merging, and the 5D series splitting... maybe Nikon is doing that? The D3s and D3x get combined, and we see a D800 and D800h/s?
    Considering that Canon still DOMINATES the telephoto sports market with their 1.3x crop, and considering that Nikon JUST RECENTLY broke into the $8K market with the D3X, ...I don't imagine that either prediction will come true. Canon will maintain two separate 1-series flagships, and Nikon will maintain two separate 4-series flagships. There is just too great of an advantage to having a low-resolution, high-speed sports camera and a separate high-resolution, studio / landscape camera.

    I would love to see Nikon put their high-resolution "flagship" sensor in a $4K body, but let's be real here- If a $4K semi-pro body preceeds an $8K flagship body by about a year, Nikon will make almost ZERO sales of the $8K flagship. It just makes more sense that the flagship comes first and the semi-pro body follows a year later. That's always the way it's been.

    Therefore, I just don't see how this potentially ground-breaking new sensor can come in such an "affordable" body. (Affordable if you consider that $3K just a few years ago is roughly equal to about $4K today, considering the horrible exchange rate for USD due to the economy and inflation...)

    =Matt=
    My first thought is always of light.” – Galen Rowell
    My SmugMug PortfolioMy Astro-Landscape Photo BlogDgrin Weddings Forum
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    ThatCanonGuyThatCanonGuy Registered Users Posts: 1,778 Major grins
    edited October 6, 2011
    Considering that Canon still DOMINATES the telephoto sports market with their 1.3x crop, and considering that Nikon JUST RECENTLY broke into the $8K market with the D3X, ...I don't imagine that either prediction will come true. Canon will maintain two separate 1-series flagships, and Nikon will maintain two separate 4-series flagships. There is just too great of an advantage to having a low-resolution, high-speed sports camera and a separate high-resolution, studio / landscape camera.

    I would love to see Nikon put their high-resolution "flagship" sensor in a $4K body, but let's be real here- If a $4K semi-pro body preceeds an $8K flagship body by about a year, Nikon will make almost ZERO sales of the $8K flagship. It just makes more sense that the flagship comes first and the semi-pro body follows a year later. That's always the way it's been.

    Therefore, I just don't see how this potentially ground-breaking new sensor can come in such an "affordable" body. (Affordable if you consider that $3K just a few years ago is roughly equal to about $4K today, considering the horrible exchange rate for USD due to the economy and inflation...)

    =Matt=

    Canon could combine their 1-Series: say they make a 40mp 1Ds, they could put a 1.3x crop mode on there, not as much data, probably faster fps. You're probably right, though... the profits are higher with two separate models.

    Maybe be D4x will have an even better sensor than this D800.
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    Ed911Ed911 Registered Users Posts: 1,306 Major grins
    edited October 6, 2011
    I have no idea if the rumor on the Nikon Rumors site has any truth in it...but, I suspect not much...for a couple of reasons. First...a D700 replacement will have to be priced competitively with other 20 something mega-pixel cameras...new models that are much better than their predecessors. So, no $4K price tag. Secondly, no 36 mega-pixel sensor. Reason...from 12 to 36 mega-pixels. It just doesn't fit the price point. And, unless Nikon has a much better sensor in mind for the D3X replacement, the D800 will steal sales. Heck, you put a 20 something mega-pixel sensor in the D700 replacement...give it a good ISO range...dual card slots...some reasonabe shutter clicks per second...say 8 or 10...HD video...and you would have a hard time selling any D3 replacements. The new d800 would fill the bill for the majority of pro shooters.

    A couple of added features that I'd like to see on the new D700 replacement...radio control (triggers) for studio lights and upgraded CLS for their strobe lineup. If it was me...I'd for sure add the radio control option. And, how about a radio streaming function so that you could tether to a laptop while walking around a studio...

    I think we're getting pretty close to the point where IQ is no longer a selling point...it's so good that it's no longer an issue...it'll be more about the abiltiy to capture the image...speed of focus, subject tracking, frames per second, ISO...control features like radio triggers and streaming technologies.

    Well, that's my opinion...for what it's worth...
    Remember, no one may want you to take pictures, but they all want to see them.
    Educate yourself like you'll live forever and live like you'll die tomorrow.

    Ed
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    WayupthereWayupthere Registered Users Posts: 179 Major grins
    edited October 6, 2011
    After looking at it for a few days, I think all of the rumors are true..just not on one camera model. At least that would make more sense. Nikon is usualy pretty straight forward in their progression. I don't see a reason for that to change especially with all of their natural disasters this year.
    Gary
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    jonh68jonh68 Registered Users Posts: 2,711 Major grins
    edited October 6, 2011
    Ed911 wrote: »
    I have no idea if the rumor on the Nikon Rumors site has any truth in it...but, I suspect not much...for a couple of reasons. First...a D700 replacement will have to be priced competitively with other 20 something mega-pixel cameras...new models that are much better than their predecessors. So, no $4K price tag. Secondly, no 36 mega-pixel sensor. Reason...from 12 to 36 mega-pixels. It just doesn't fit the price point. And, unless Nikon has a much better sensor in mind for the D3X replacement, the D800 will steal sales. Heck, you put a 20 something mega-pixel sensor in the D700 replacement...give it a good ISO range...dual card slots...some reasonabe shutter clicks per second...say 8 or 10...HD video...and you would have a hard time selling any D3 replacements. The new d800 would fill the bill for the majority of pro shooters.

    A couple of added features that I'd like to see on the new D700 replacement...radio control (triggers) for studio lights and upgraded CLS for their strobe lineup. If it was me...I'd for sure add the radio control option. And, how about a radio streaming function so that you could tether to a laptop while walking around a studio...

    I think we're getting pretty close to the point where IQ is no longer a selling point...it's so good that it's no longer an issue...it'll be more about the abiltiy to capture the image...speed of focus, subject tracking, frames per second, ISO...control features like radio triggers and streaming technologies.

    Well, that's my opinion...for what it's worth...

    I suspect the D800, if these specs are true, is also going to be the D3x replacement as well. The D3x in the pro body didn't set the world on fire with it's high price tag. For the crowd that the D3x was marketed too, they didn't need a pro grade body or performance features like the D3s. I think Nikon is going to create two seperate FX lines, one with pj and sportshooters in mind, the D4, and one for studio and landscape, the D800. Both lines will have different sensors. The D4 will get the smaller sensor and be designed for performance, while the D800 will have the larger sensor for maximum detail.

    If they go this way, they can possibly use the D4x and put a DX sensor in a pro body which many shooters have wanted since the last pro DX was the D2X.
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    ThatCanonGuyThatCanonGuy Registered Users Posts: 1,778 Major grins
    edited October 6, 2011
    Ed911 wrote: »
    I have no idea if the rumor on the Nikon Rumors site has any truth in it...but, I suspect not much...for a couple of reasons. First...a D700 replacement will have to be priced competitively with other 20 something mega-pixel cameras...new models that are much better than their predecessors. So, no $4K price tag. Secondly, no 36 mega-pixel sensor. Reason...from 12 to 36 mega-pixels. It just doesn't fit the price point. And, unless Nikon has a much better sensor in mind for the D3X replacement, the D800 will steal sales. Heck, you put a 20 something mega-pixel sensor in the D700 replacement...give it a good ISO range...dual card slots...some reasonabe shutter clicks per second...say 8 or 10...HD video...and you would have a hard time selling any D3 replacements. The new d800 would fill the bill for the majority of pro shooters.

    Keep in mind that $4000 today is equivalent to about $3000 when the D700 was released, given inflation and exchange rates. Nikon has to compensate to make the same profit.

    36mp makes sense to me, because this D800 has to compete with the other manufacturers for probably the next 4 years. I predict that in 2015, 36mp won't seem so high.
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    NeilLNeilL Registered Users Posts: 4,201 Major grins
    edited October 6, 2011
    Ed911 wrote: »
    I have no idea if the rumor on the Nikon Rumors site has any truth in it...but, I suspect not much...for a couple of reasons. First...a D700 replacement will have to be priced competitively with other 20 something mega-pixel cameras...new models that are much better than their predecessors. So, no $4K price tag. Secondly, no 36 mega-pixel sensor. Reason...from 12 to 36 mega-pixels. It just doesn't fit the price point. And, unless Nikon has a much better sensor in mind for the D3X replacement, the D800 will steal sales. Heck, you put a 20 something mega-pixel sensor in the D700 replacement...give it a good ISO range...dual card slots...some reasonabe shutter clicks per second...say 8 or 10...HD video...and you would have a hard time selling any D3 replacements. The new d800 would fill the bill for the majority of pro shooters.

    A couple of added features that I'd like to see on the new D700 replacement...radio control (triggers) for studio lights and upgraded CLS for their strobe lineup. If it was me...I'd for sure add the radio control option. And, how about a radio streaming function so that you could tether to a laptop while walking around a studio...

    I think we're getting pretty close to the point where IQ is no longer a selling point...it's so good that it's no longer an issue...it'll be more about the abiltiy to capture the image...speed of focus, subject tracking, frames per second, ISO...control features like radio triggers and streaming technologies.

    Well, that's my opinion...for what it's worth...

    Good points here. I agree that with the rumour info it's difficult to place this supposed model in any current system.

    The lower end of the camera market needs to be regularly flooded with gimmicky funky gear. The top end of the dslr market is under increasing pressure from the fantastically pro-featured and increasingly cheaper MF gear.

    Nikon and Canon are going to have to protect their top end interests against this, which means exploiting dslr size and pricing and adding comparable MF-like resolution but with higher ISO and fps performance. The comparatively affordable huge range of excellent dslr lenses with fast and accurate AF is already a big advantage to N & C.

    Closing the gap in resolution, and better shooting and workflow integration with peripherals, and editing, display and sharing applications - big selling points atm for the latest MF systems - will put N & C within firing range of the MF threat to their flagship lines.

    Neil
    "Snow. Ice. Slow!" "Half-winter. Half-moon. Half-asleep!"

    http://www.behance.net/brosepix
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    macwestmacwest Registered Users Posts: 33 Big grins
    edited October 6, 2011
    I pulled the trigger today after reading this
    Wayupthere wrote: »
    Well this is exactly what I was afraid of when I pulled the trigger on the 700 last week..rolleyes1.gif. But then again I still don't have a grasp of 20% of the settings yet..so a little early to say much from me :D
    In fact I logged on to post some pictures and ask some basic questions when I seen this rolleyes1.gif
    Gary

    I just ordered a d700 and 24-70 2.8 today if you go and look you will see the price has gone up since this rumor and are in short supply
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    thegridrunnerthegridrunner Registered Users Posts: 235 Major grins
    edited October 6, 2011
    Why buy a d700 before seeing what the new nikon will do? I'm pretty confident that the new nikon will blast the d700 out of the water. The prices will drop on the D700 next month and over the next few months, ebay will be flooded with them.
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    NeilLNeilL Registered Users Posts: 4,201 Major grins
    edited October 6, 2011
    Why buy a d700 before seeing what the new nikon will do? I'm pretty confident that the new nikon will blast the d700 out of the water. The prices will drop on the D700 next month and over the next few months, ebay will be flooded with them.

    ...maybe because "newer-future" is not necessarily "more relevant" to a particular person's needs - as per my siggy!:D also, I agree with macwest that the D700 is likely not to drop in new and resale price, perhaps for another 12mo...

    Neil
    "Snow. Ice. Slow!" "Half-winter. Half-moon. Half-asleep!"

    http://www.behance.net/brosepix
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    WayupthereWayupthere Registered Users Posts: 179 Major grins
    edited October 6, 2011
    I just ordered a d700 and 24-70 2.8 today if you go and look you will see the price has gone up since this rumor and are in short supply
    Nicely done sir! thumb.gif
    Who did you snag it from? I got mine a less than 2 weeks ago when a few showed up and then dried up just as fast.
    Why buy a d700 before seeing what the new nikon will do? I'm pretty confident that the new nikon will blast the d700 out of the water. The prices will drop on the D700 next month and over the next few months, ebay will be flooded with them.
    Well for me I waited for quite a while. And at the same time the 700's were nowhere to be found. My thinking was the 700 is a proven solid performer, and if the replacement does indeed float on air..I would just make the 700 the second body in the bag.
    Lets face it..one is never enough of anything..eek7.gif
    Price wise they have been is short supply most of the year, so even if it gets replaced in the lineup I don't think the prices will drop a bunch. If they do I might have several 700's mwink.gif
    No matter what happens it will be fun :ivar
    Gary
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    JovesJoves Registered Users Posts: 200 Major grins
    edited October 6, 2011
    Well I dont see the Niko Rumors article as one passsing the smell test to tell you the truth. Much like where they are saying the D400 will be FX. It will be a DX snesor with more improvements over the D7000 sensor> They will keep a one Prosumer body in DX and the other in FX. And why anyone would think the Nikon would re-enter the MP war with a 36MP camera is beyond me, that has not been teir path. They develop cleaner Higher ISOs over cramming in more MPs. They may have developed a High ISO higher MP sensor but not that high. When you am that many photosites into a sensor of that size you lose a lot.
    I shoot therefore Iam.
    http://joves.smugmug.com/
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    jonh68jonh68 Registered Users Posts: 2,711 Major grins
    edited October 6, 2011
    Joves wrote: »
    Well I dont see the Niko Rumors article as one passsing the smell test to tell you the truth. Much like where they are saying the D400 will be FX. It will be a DX snesor with more improvements over the D7000 sensor> They will keep a one Prosumer body in DX and the other in FX. And why anyone would think the Nikon would re-enter the MP war with a 36MP camera is beyond me, that has not been teir path. They develop cleaner Higher ISOs over cramming in more MPs. They may have developed a High ISO higher MP sensor but not that high. When you am that many photosites into a sensor of that size you lose a lot.

    With the 36 mp sensor, speculation is Nikon will use pixel binning for improved noise performance.
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    macwestmacwest Registered Users Posts: 33 Big grins
    edited October 6, 2011
    Wayupthere wrote: »
    Nicely done sir! thumb.gif
    Who did you snag it from? I got mine a less than 2 weeks ago when a few showed up and then dried up just as fast.
    Well for me I waited for quite a while. And at the same time the 700's were nowhere to be found. My thinking was the 700 is a proven solid performer, and if the replacement does indeed float on air..I would just make the 700 the second body in the bag.
    Lets face it..one is never enough of anything..eek7.gif
    Price wise they have been is short supply most of the year, so even if it gets replaced in the lineup I don't think the prices will drop a bunch. If they do I might have several 700's mwink.gif
    No matter what happens it will be fun :ivar
    Gary
    I bought the lens nikon 24-70mm 2.8 from amazon and the body through amazon but it was a 3rd party called ace photo amazon directly was out of body. Lens was 1699 body was 2799 both new. Main reason was never had a ff cam and didnt want video on it and cant see how new one would have less noise. I think d700 will go up in price used for a while as soon as supply of new dries up. will be here Monday.
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    Matthew SavilleMatthew Saville Registered Users, Retired Mod Posts: 3,352 Major grins
    edited October 7, 2011
    I think that for sure, if the D800 truly does debut at $4K, and has 36 megapixels, people will be eating up used D700's like they're gold at $500/oz. I don't envision the price going down at all.

    However, I don't "envision" the D800 as it is currently rumored anyways, so the point is moot.

    I'd happily be wrong though, as long as another low-res camera is also on the horizon. And I'm talking sub-$3K, NOT a $5K D4.

    =Matt=
    My first thought is always of light.” – Galen Rowell
    My SmugMug PortfolioMy Astro-Landscape Photo BlogDgrin Weddings Forum
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    ZerodogZerodog Registered Users Posts: 1,480 Major grins
    edited October 8, 2011
    Nikon rep was not very forthcoming about any of these rumors yesterday. But I did get to get my hands on the 1. Pretty cool little guy. Wonder how the IQ will be?
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    macwestmacwest Registered Users Posts: 33 Big grins
    edited October 8, 2011
    Maybe this is why I see the d700 going up in price glad I just bought it.
    http://nikonrumors.com/2011/10/07/another-nikon-price-increase-in-the-us.aspx/#more-23432
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    thegridrunnerthegridrunner Registered Users Posts: 235 Major grins
    edited October 9, 2011
    Well, what are you going to do, everything goes up in price. I still think the D800 will propel Nikon past all competitors in terms of image quality...when it finally does show it's face. All my pennies that I saved will finally pay off...I'll also get my desk drawer back. rolleyes1.gif
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    WayupthereWayupthere Registered Users Posts: 179 Major grins
    edited October 9, 2011
    All my pennies that I saved will finally pay off...I'll also get my desk drawer back. rolleyes1.gif
    That better be a really big drawer mwink.gif
    Gary
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    InternautInternaut Registered Users Posts: 347 Major grins
    edited October 9, 2011
    It sounds plausible enough
    It sounds like a plausible enough rumor to me. I recently read a preview of the NEX7 no Luminous Landscape and the author of the review suggested for low ISOs at least, it was close to the 24MP full frame sensor used in the D3X and the Sony full frame cameras. The pushing of the envelope that we've seen with APS-C sensors is going to apply to full frame so 36MP is plausible to me (though I suspect high ISO performance will take a hit).

    The only issue I see is that Nikon needs to continue to serve those who use the D700 for action in low light. Perhaps a 16 or 24MP upgrade (or even stick with 12 but continue to push the envelope at 12) would be the sweet spot for these users?
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    Y_KnotY_Knot Registered Users Posts: 55 Big grins
    edited October 9, 2011
    Well, what are you going to do, everything goes up in price. I still think the D800 will propel Nikon past all competitors in terms of image quality...when it finally does show it's face. All my pennies that I saved will finally pay off...I'll also get my desk drawer back. rolleyes1.gif


    That's a heavy duty drawer to hold 2200 lbs. wings.gif
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    Matthew SavilleMatthew Saville Registered Users, Retired Mod Posts: 3,352 Major grins
    edited October 9, 2011
    Internaut wrote: »
    The only issue I see is that Nikon needs to continue to serve those who use the D700 for action in low light. Perhaps a 16 or 24MP upgrade (or even stick with 12 but continue to push the envelope at 12) would be the sweet spot for these users?
    That's exactly what I'm hoping for. I could "put up with" Nikon's semi-insanity in developing a 36 megapixel DSLR at $4K, if another 16 megapixel DSLR showed up at $3K or so...

    =Matt=
    My first thought is always of light.” – Galen Rowell
    My SmugMug PortfolioMy Astro-Landscape Photo BlogDgrin Weddings Forum
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    MGRPhotoMGRPhoto Registered Users Posts: 55 Big grins
    edited October 10, 2011
    That's exactly what I'm hoping for. I could "put up with" Nikon's semi-insanity in developing a 36 megapixel DSLR at $4K, if another 16 megapixel DSLR showed up at $3K or so...

    =Matt=

    I would be happy if they just started mass producing the D700 again as is. Add in the (S) features from the D300s and I'd be in heaven.
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    Matthew SavilleMatthew Saville Registered Users, Retired Mod Posts: 3,352 Major grins
    edited October 10, 2011
    MGRPhoto wrote: »
    I would be happy if they just started mass producing the D700 again as is. Add in the (S) features from the D300s and I'd be in heaven.
    Oh, I totally agree. I'd take a D700s (with the D3s sensor, and dual card slots, NOTHING else - not even video) ...and I'd be totally in heaven! Heck, I'd settle for an easing of supply VS demand on the D700 as it is; if the used price dropped back down below $2K, I'd be happy.


    Unfortunately, I believe it was a Nikon official who stated during an interview something along the lines of "sticking with 12 megapixels for so long was a mistake, and our next generation will move forward" ...Or something like that. Bottom line, we'll probably never see another FX DSLR at less than 16-18 megapixels, period. I wouldn't mind 16 megapixels; I'm sure that with the next generation of sensors and EXSPEED processors they could easily add a stop or more to the D3s.

    But if Nikon goes all the way to 36 megapixels and doesn't "come back down" with another semi-pro, affordable body, then I'll be buying up two or three mint condition D700's and putting them somewhere safe until I need them. (Unless, of course, they develop a GOOD version of the sRAW format. Then it's game on!)

    =Matt=
    My first thought is always of light.” – Galen Rowell
    My SmugMug PortfolioMy Astro-Landscape Photo BlogDgrin Weddings Forum
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